hurricanesfandomcom-20200216-history
Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season/July
July 09W.CHAN-HOM 95W.INVEST twin system of 90P. GFS says it will track north. then straight into the Phillipines and crosses into the NIO, where it possibly regenerates. totally destructive|get hyper! 16:05, July 2, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Chan-Hom This one is well out to sea, forecast to become a typhoon when it nears the Mariana Islands in 4-5 days. Ryan1000 14:20, June 30, 2015 (UTC) w00t! If this is a Category 5, we can see a third-in-a-row! (not counting storms that didn't make it to STS status or higher) --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 16:26, June 30, 2015 (UTC) chanhom going to absorb 94W. totally destructive|get hyper! 15:41, July 1, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Chan-hom if you think that Chan-hom is a ball of convection. think again... [http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015070206/gfs_pres_wind_09W_29.png GFS deepens it up to 880mb] on the 06z run. totally destructive|get hyper! 16:03, July 2, 2015 (UTC) spoke too early. now a C1. but what happens if it does EI or RI? totally destructive|get hyper! 01:06, July 3, 2015 (UTC) : Almost a typhoon now, and the forecast peak is raised to cat 4, Chan-Hom could even be yet another cat 5 if it intensifies fast enough. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC) : well its now an pellet of convection now! totally destructive|get hyper! 15:47, July 3, 2015 (UTC) Chan-hom's eye is currently passing like Dolphin did. GFS is predicting an category 5 landfall near Shanghai,China ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 23:36, July 4, 2015 (UTC) : God forbid that ever happen, a super typhoon hitting Shanghai would be one of the top 3 worst-case scenarios for a typhoon in the West Pacific to ever do, alongside Hong Kong and Tokyo. I doubt that will happen, but the JTWC's track still shows a cat 3 heading in the direction of Shanghai sometime late next week, which would still be a pretty bad scenario. Ryan1000 03:33, July 5, 2015 (UTC) @Ryan. I meant an possible C5 landfall. Chan-hom eyewall is randomly moving between the island of Rota. already reporting 15 inches of rain! in Guam. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 04:20, July 5, 2015 (UTC) :A "super typhoon" as (unofficially) defined by the JTWC has winds of 150 mph or higher, which is a strong category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and a strong C4 landfall would have pretty much the same outcome as a 5. Again, I'd be very surprised if Chan-Hom can pull off a cat 5 landfall in Shanghai, but a cat 3 isn't out of the question, which would still be pretty bad. The GFS recently tracked southward on this, taking it south of Shanghai as a 960 mbar cat 3 strength storm, but the Euro takes it further north, near or right over the city as a 944 mbar cat 4. Either way, this definitely bears watching for China. Ryan1000 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Chan-Hom Now a cat 1, but Chan-Hom is still expected to be a formidable cat 4 when it nears China later this week, it'll probably be well south of Shanghai, but still, it could be destructive to cities further south. Ryan1000 21:05, July 6, 2015 (UTC) a lot of dry air is in Chan-hom's circulation. which should prevent a big intesification phase. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 01:59, July 7, 2015 (UTC) :But at the cost of less intensity, this thing has gotten really big over the past days, and even if it doesn't directly hit Shanghai, it'll still be bringing rough weather to the city, and the latest forecast now turns it north and then northeast just after it moves ashore south of Shanghai, meaning the city might not get off as easily as I earlier anticipated. Fortunately, by that time it's only expected to be a category 1 storm. Ryan1000 20:27, July 7, 2015 (UTC) :::Now it's a 115 mph cat 3, and forecast to become a 4. This is becoming a fairly threatening storm for parts of China. Ryan1000 17:32, July 9, 2015 (UTC) :::: and is not over yet. Chan-hom is possibly under an RI stage now. current JTWC track is sending it directly over shanghai as a weak TS --the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 17:44, July 9, 2015 (UTC) :: The storm is weakening now, to 105 mph, and it's also projected to turn north now, just before it makes landfall in China. It seems Shanghai will be getting off easiler than they could've been. It could still deliver some rough surf to them, but they probably won't suffer a direct hit by now. Ryan1000 04:07, July 11, 2015 (UTC) :::::: And making landfall as a strong category 2 south of the city, but if it becomes a strong category 4 like Nangka is right now, it might make landfall as a strong 3 and pass over Shanghai as a 2, which would bring a dangerous storm surge to the city. Fortunately, the city has a 20-foot floodwall to protect the downtown area from a 1-in-1000 year storm surge, a storm would have to directly hit the city at a very high intensity to cause a significant disaster. But that doesn't mean a weaker storm like Chan-Hom can't cause some heavy damage to the city, mainly due to it's large size. It's definitely a storm to prepare for. Ryan1000 02:48, July 10, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Chan-Hom It died after making landfall in North Korea as a depression, but it caused some 306 million in amage to Shanghai. Then again, that's not the worst it could've been, they got lucky from this one. Ryan1000 20:09, July 13, 2015 (UTC) 10W.LINFA as everyone is focused on chan-hom. another invest pops up. (like gremlins, you pour water on them and they duplicate) totally destructive|get hyper! 15:18, June 30, 2015 (UTC) T.C.F.A. issued. TD by JMA and named Egay by PAGASA. totally destructive|get hyper! 22:20, July 1, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Linfa who knew? totally destructive|get hyper! 15:29, July 2, 2015 (UTC) : Wha...well, I didn't expect this one to jump up so fast. Expected to become a typhoon as it passes northern, or just north of, Luzon in a few days. Won't be as strong as Chan-Hom though. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC) Currently stalling or moving very slowly over northern Luzon, it'll gradually creep it's way further north towards Taiwan over the next 3-4 days. Ryan1000 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC) JTWC is being dumb and its still keeping it at 60kn, does this have more than 60kn? ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 16:20, July 8, 2015 (UTC) : Linfa briefly became a typhoon yesterday, but it appears to have lost it's deep convection lately as it moved over China near Hong Kong. But it won't be as serious as Chan-Hom will be. Ryan1000 17:32, July 9, 2015 (UTC) 11W.NANGKA JMA Tropical Depression Another one out there, this one is somewhat near to Chan-Hom. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nangka dang. the WPac is officially on fire. totally destructive|get hyper! 15:33, July 3, 2015 (UTC) officially named. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 20:31, July 3, 2015 (UTC) : Well I'll be, this is gonna be a helluva ride for the Marianas over the next couple of days. Due to its proximity to Chan-Hom, the former weakened recently and it might have some trouble strengthening, as could this, but once they move away from each other, they'll have a chance at becoming typhoons. Ryan1000 20:52, July 3, 2015 (UTC) :: Nangka tore roofs from homes and downed trees and power lines. Nearly half of the nation's capital city of the same name were left without power. This could have a shot at typhoon status and/or retirement. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 18:23, July 4, 2015 (UTC) still Nangka has a chance of doing an RI phase if Chan-hom moves away enough ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 23:39, July 4, 2015 (UTC) : It probably won't be as threatening in the long term as Chan-Hom, both the GFS and ECMWF recurve this out to sea before reaching Japan. It could become strong, but aside from some minor flooding in the Marianas and Marshalls, this won't be that severe. Ryan1000 03:47, July 5, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Nangka Wow, I didn't expect Nangka to get stronger than Chan-Hom today, it's a cat 2 now on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and forecast to become a 3 shortly. Ryan1000 21:05, July 6, 2015 (UTC) ...the GFS is sending Nangka towards... tokyo? still, it's battling dry air and could go RI. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 01:55, July 7, 2015 (UTC) : It'll probably turn away before reaching them, but it's still a very strong storm, now winds are up to 140 mph and forecast to become a 160 mph cat 5 shortly. Ryan1000 20:27, July 7, 2015 (UTC) ::Super typhoon now with the same wind speeds as Dolphin (according to Wikipedia) Dolphin part 2 --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 14:27, July 9, 2015 (UTC) : It's actually 155, not 160. But it's so close to cat 5 strength, I'd be surprised if it's not one later today. Ryan1000 17:32, July 9, 2015 (UTC) Been a few days since I posted for Nangka here, it's still a cat 3 but could become a 4 again before weakening as it approaches southern Japan. Ryan1000 20:09, July 13, 2015 (UTC) ::Ryan, I don't think that will happen. Nangka's reintensification was interrupted by an ERC, and is basically struggling to maintain its structure in general. Dvorak estimates have prompted the JTWC to downgrade the typhoon's winds to 80 knots (90 mph) (1-min) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA places higher wind estimates of 85 knots (100 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 945 mbar (hPa; 27.90 inHg). Despite low shear, dry air will prompt Nangka to continue weakening before hitting Japan near the Greater Osaka region, which both the JMA and JTWC forecast will happen in some 24-36 hours. Land interaction and hostile environmental conditions should then knock all the power out of the typhoon within the next five days. However, northern Honshu and Hokkaido may still receive some severe impacts from Nangka based on the JTWC forecast. Hopefully, everything goes well for Japan. AndrewTalk To Me 15:20, July 15, 2015 (UTC) ::: That was two days ago, conditons have changed and Nangka is definitely not as well organized now as it once was. Like I said in the retirements section below, this'll probably be a repeat of Halong last year in terms of impacts to Japan. A little rain and damage, but nothing exceptional. Ryan1000 20:27, July 15, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nangka (2nd time) Nangka has made two landfalls over Japan. Since then, it has really powered down due to land interaction, but the JTWC notes some convectional wrapping, as the storm is in the Sea of Japan. Winds are currently 35 knots (40 mph) (1 and 10-min) according to both the JTWC and JMA, with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg), and gusts of 45 knots (50 mph) per the former. Despite good outflow ATM, increasing shear and land interaction with northern Honshu will very likely lead to Nangka's demise within a couple of days, as both the aforementioned agencies expect. Two fatalities have been reported from the typhoon so far, based on Wikipedia's 2015 PTS article, but I'm not sure if these are from Japan or the Marshall Islands. AndrewTalk To Me 14:59, July 17, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nangka Nangka is on its last legs. Whatever convection is left is slowly eroding away, and the system shouldn't last for more than a couple of days. The only reason this isn't extratopical yet is because there is a lack of sufficient baroclinicity. Winds are down to 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph) per the JTWC. Also, the current JMA pressure for Nangka is 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg); no wind information is given from them. As the depression rounds the edge of STR, it should make another landfall over extreme northern Honshu and southeastern Hokkaido with less widespread impacts. Speaking of which, a third fatality has been reported from Nangka. AndrewTalk To Me 01:18, July 18, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Nangka Nangka is no longer tropical, as it is basically a string of clouds. As it closes in on northern Honshu, it will meet its final end due to land interaction. However, this was quite the storm to track, and hopefully foreshadows more powerful harmless typhoons here in the WPAC. AndrewTalk To Me 20:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC) 01C.HALOLA Because Halola formed in the Central Pacific, any comments regarding the system should be posted here. AndrewTalk To Me 02:59, July 13, 2015 (UTC) JMA Tropical Depression JMA Tropical Depression And as one dies, another one comes. Although not on their forecast path, the JMA is currently following a new TD with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) and unknown winds just northeast of the Philippines. No word from the JTWC yet. AndrewTalk To Me 12:23, July 19, 2015 (UTC) note that Nangka absorbed another JMA TD earlier. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:04, July 19, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression This depression dissipated near Korea yesterday. Odile, there have been a few scattered TD's the JMA has monitored this past week. The one you mentioned was already absorbed two days before the depression of this discussion formed. Moreover, while this second system was dying, the JMA briefly tracked a third depression over Guangdong. In short, the TD we are discussing is not the one that was eaten by Nangka. AndrewTalk To Me 17:47, July 21, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression 12W 12W.NONAME aaaand theres an tiny depression in the wpac now. could get absorbed to Halola in the next 2 days. the wpac is on ������ the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 17:04, July 23, 2015 (UTC)